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Thursday 20 November 2008

High-profile shutdowns and low-profile major updates...

Quite a day for negative articles on Google. I counted 10 articles on Lively shutting down, with the usual suspects gloating and cheering from the sidelines. Won't be joining that crowd, it's never fun to see someone's work being thrown out the window. I did want to relate that to a bigger picture, though.

This certainly won't be the last shutdown among the 100+ virtual worlds projects under work right now, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see even higher-profile projects being canceled, either in the current financial bloodbath which curely will kill even some companies which 6 months earlier were entirely viable operations, or in the year to come when the business fails to materialize. Money's still being thrown in to the game at pretty amazing rate, and there's just not enough experience to go around to make all these projects work.

And that's because at the end of the day, this business is not about the brand, the IP, the coolest technology, or even the best user experience. Instead, this is about being able to nurture a community, co-operate with it to develop something which no one knows where it will ultimately end up at, and to be on the pulse of what's going on, every minute of every day. I know it's easy to forget that, with the allure of focusing on the superficial, easy to analyze product features, APIs, and so on.

We've certainly learned that the hard way ourselves - it's not like we've always kept our eye on the ball either. Still, you only need to be right most of the time, listen carefully, and not miss where you need to correct yourself. It's now been roughly a year since we launched a significant refresh to Habbo that put the service on the track its been on since, after what can be described only as a pretty horrible summer 2007 for us.

That was 12 months and 11 upgrades ago, though. Yesterday we launched what's internally called release 28 of Habbo in UK. The most exciting features of it haven't yet been turned on, as we're preparing yet another global roll-out to begin next week. This is an important release to us, possibly as important as the one made a year ago, as it'll change the economic and reward models of the community forever. I hope we got it right on this one. If we did, it's going to be an amazing Xmas, for us and for all the Habbos. If not, well, then we'll need to scramble a bit to make it fun anyhow. But that's what we're good at.

Sunday 16 November 2008

Chris Anderson on freemium conversion

Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail, uses free-to-play web games as a case study on conversion rates for freemium products. I wrote about the conversion and monetization rates in this world two months ago as a followup to my GCDC presentation from last summer. I can't really think of a better example of freemium model than Habbo - a freely accessible service with high engagement and a large audience really gets to utilize and showcase the model at its very peak. The only thing missing is even easier micropayment models. We'd love to use the iTunes store for selling Habbo items, for example.

Thursday 16 October 2008

Splitting the virtual worlds market to segments

IMVU founder Eric Ries commented on Virtual Goods Summit and suggested that virtual worlds can be divvied up along three axes of UGC/first-party, subscription/pay-for-stuff, and economy/gameplay focus. This is certainly one good way of thinking about the focus decisions needed when designing and developing a product in this market, but personally, I think this model, along with others I've seen and played with myself, suffers from a few key weaknesses that arise from the need to simplify things. I'm not saying the model can't help put things in order, just that there's more to finding the right solutions than this. Lets go with the great blogger tradition of point-for-point response.

UGC vs first-party

It's amazing Sulka didn't comment on this: UGC is not just about letting users upload pictures or items to a world. More to the point, Habbo certainly is not first-party content focused. Yes, all our furni is designed and developed by our own teams, and we don't enable user uploads. But at the same time, over 90% of all of the activities in Habbo emerge from the community - users take what we've made, and do their own things with it. Most of what's going on, we had no idea would happen.

Eric says IMVU's efforts to enable UGC dwarf those to create their own first-party catalog. Well, so do ours, despite his classification of Habbo being first-party content focused. Every feature, every furni, every activity, every news item receives more thought on "how do we support users to go to their own directions here?" than "what do we want this to be about?". Plus the significant fraction of our work that has absolute no effort to produce content attached to it, and is fully focused on player activities.

Lets just use the old, tired LEGO analogy here. How much of LEGO is first-party content? Just enough to get the imagination of the players going so they can create something of their own. Anything more would be too much, and this applies to any VW that can call itself "social" - and none that isn't social isn't going to be interesting. Trying to make a useful UGC split for any purpose other than copyright infringement monitoring is a red herring, and even for that one purpose it's not very likely to be useful due to other moderation requirements.

Subscription or pay-for-stuff

This is one of the stronger arguments, if only just because those are the business models the industry has latched on to. They're certainly not the only possibilities though, nor are they alternatives to each other. Eric's points about the strenghts and weaknesses are good - but you can benefit from both at the same time, and support the weaknesses of one model with the strenghts of the other. This is certainly an area where we have a lot of experience, over 8 years of it, and I don't think we've gotten very far yet..

Economy or gameplay

Eric used the word "merchandising" instead of economy, and I think that's the crucial over-simplification that leads to thinking that pay-for-stuff games and worlds are just about cross-selling opportunities best left to a competent marketing department to handle. I'm wondering whether he's simplifying the choice to make it easier to explain, or purposefully misleading someone on what's crucial to think about, or whether our friends at IMVU simply haven't realized this yet: the first-hand sales are a small fraction of the total trade in an item-based game, and the gameplay balance is just as critical here as it is in a game built out of designer-created quests and gameplay mechanics. What's more, because its emergent behaviour, it's nearly impossible to predict, and very difficult to measure, model and understand. Yet that's exactly what's required in order to succeed.

I hope that explains why I choose to call it economy-driven rather than merchandising.

PS. Browsing around Eric's blog a bit further, this article is a gem

Wednesday 9 July 2008

Virtual worlds looked lively today

This turned out to be quite a day for virtual worlds' publicity, with both Google's Lively and Vivaty Scenes launching (congrats to both), and Second Life annoucing an interop with OpenSim together with IBM. All of that is great, and validates the concept of web-based, interoperable virtual worlds supporting and interacting with other web content (and vice versa), and supports our own thoughts nicely. There's plenty of room here for more players! I'd love to write more on this, but with my last work week before summer vacations keeping me quite busy right now, I'm afraid I don't have the energy to put my thoughts down to a publishable shape. Perhaps later, though. I'm sure I will have a lot of interesting discussion about the whole scene in GCDC next month, as well. Look me up if you're reading this and plan to be there!

(oh yeah, sorry about the horrible pun in the title)